Hockey Predictive Analytics
ShiftEdge
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NHL Predictive Analytics

Find the edge, not just the favorite.

ShiftEdge estimates NHL win probabilities and compares them with market prices to calculate expected value (EV). EV is the primary metric for comparing picks on ShiftEdge.

EV is the most important stat when choosing between picks

ShiftEdge is built around expected value. Win probability, market probability, and edge provide context, but picks should be compared primarily by EV because it combines the model's probability with the price available in the market. A lower-probability team can still be the stronger value when its odds create higher positive EV.

Research & gambling disclaimer

This site and its model are provided for research, analytical, educational, and informational purposes only. Model probabilities, edges, expected values, picks, and historical results do not guarantee future outcomes and should not be treated as financial or gambling advice. Gambling involves risk and can result in financial loss. Any decision to place a wager is made solely by the user, who is responsible for evaluating the information, complying with applicable laws and age requirements, and deciding whether gambling is appropriate for them.

Model Outputs

Predictions

Use Game Winners for every matchup and Projected Standings for the model’s expected final order. When evaluating a potential pick, EV is the primary decision metric; win probability, market odds, and edge help explain why that EV exists.

Game WinnersProjected StandingsWin ProbabilityMarket OddsEdge
Open Game Winners → Open Standings →
Next 3 Game PredictionsLive upcoming games
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Value Finder

Top Picks

Top Picks narrows the board to games where ShiftEdge sees the strongest gap between its probability and the market price. The focus is expected value, not simply which team has the higher win probability.

10%+ EVModel ProbabilityMarket ProbabilityBest Price
Open Top Picks →
Next 3 Top Picks10%+ EV
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Transparency

History

History separates the model's locked predictions from the official betting record. That makes it easy to see how the model performed on every game and how qualifying value picks performed independently.

Model HistoryBetting HistoryWins & LossesLocked Predictions
View History →
Latest 5 Model History GamesLive locked games
Loading…Model History—
Team Deep Dive

Team Info

Team pages bring together seasonal and recent performance, model history, player and goalie impact, and trend movement. Use them to understand what is driving a team's current projection.

Season StatsLast 10Trend ArrowsPlayer ImpactGoalie Impact
Explore Team Info →
Team SnapshotANA · Last 10
Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks

—Goals / Game
—Goals Against
—Record
Top Player Impact—
Projected Goalie Impact—
Learn the System

Model Info

Model Info is the full reference for how ShiftEdge works. It covers the methodology, historical testing, evaluation metrics, lineup rules, how to read predictions, and what can cause a probability to change.

How It WorksHistorical TestingAUCBrier ScoreLog LossDefinitions
Open Model Info →
Game Winners · Winner-168168-feature model
168Selected Winner Features
6,559Historical Fit Games
PendingVerified Live Picks
—Independent Holdout
168 model featuresPlayer strengthGoalie historyTeam shot/possession contextRest contextLocked at puck drop
Roadmap

Coming Soon

ShiftEdge continues expanding into additional NHL markets. These features will be added only after their models and data pipelines are tested independently.

Coming Soon

Over / Unders

Projected game totals with model probabilities for the over and under, designed to compare expected scoring with available totals.

Coming Soon

Player Props

Player-level projections using player history, expected role, lineup context, and matchup information.

Statistical data: MoneyPuck.com