Find the edge, not just the favorite.
ShiftEdge estimates NHL win probabilities and compares them with market prices to calculate expected value (EV). EV is the primary metric for comparing picks on ShiftEdge.
ShiftEdge is built around expected value. Win probability, market probability, and edge provide context, but picks should be compared primarily by EV because it combines the model's probability with the price available in the market. A lower-probability team can still be the stronger value when its odds create higher positive EV.
This site and its model are provided for research, analytical, educational, and informational purposes only. Model probabilities, edges, expected values, picks, and historical results do not guarantee future outcomes and should not be treated as financial or gambling advice. Gambling involves risk and can result in financial loss. Any decision to place a wager is made solely by the user, who is responsible for evaluating the information, complying with applicable laws and age requirements, and deciding whether gambling is appropriate for them.
Predictions
Use Game Winners for every matchup and Projected Standings for the model’s expected final order. When evaluating a potential pick, EV is the primary decision metric; win probability, market odds, and edge help explain why that EV exists.
Top Picks
Top Picks narrows the board to games where ShiftEdge sees the strongest gap between its probability and the market price. The focus is expected value, not simply which team has the higher win probability.
History
History separates the model's locked predictions from the official betting record. That makes it easy to see how the model performed on every game and how qualifying value picks performed independently.
Team Info
Team pages bring together seasonal and recent performance, model history, player and goalie impact, and trend movement. Use them to understand what is driving a team's current projection.
Anaheim Ducks
Model Info
Model Info is the full reference for how ShiftEdge works. It covers the methodology, historical testing, evaluation metrics, lineup rules, how to read predictions, and what can cause a probability to change.
Coming Soon
ShiftEdge continues expanding into additional NHL markets. These features will be added only after their models and data pipelines are tested independently.
Over / Unders
Projected game totals with model probabilities for the over and under, designed to compare expected scoring with available totals.
Player Props
Player-level projections using player history, expected role, lineup context, and matchup information.